Your fat stores set a speed limit
Almost every cutting calculator takes a percentage off your maintenance
calories and stops there. That misses the constraint that actually decides
whether a cut works: how much energy your body can pull out of fat in a day.
That amount is roughly proportional to how much fat you are carrying, around 48 kcal per kilogram of fat mass per day as a
conservative figure. Run a deficit larger than that and the shortfall does
not vanish. It comes out of muscle instead.
Which produces a result people find counter-intuitive. A 90 kg man at
25% body fat carries about 22 kg of fat, so he can support a deficit of
around 1,000 kcal a day. The same man at 12% carries under 11 kg,
and his ceiling is roughly 520 kcal, half as much.
Getting leaner does not make you better at cutting. It makes you worse at it.
This is why the last four kilos are so much harder than the first four,
and it has nothing to do with willpower. It is why the calculator above
will quietly shrink your deficit if you pick a fast pace while lean.
The right pace, and the evidence for it
The recommendation across the literature is 0.5 to 1% of bodyweight
per week, and the single most useful study on it is small but very
clean. Elite athletes lifting four times a week were split into two groups:
one losing 0.7% of bodyweight a week, the other 1.4%.
- Slow group (0.7%/week): lean mass increased 2.1%. Fat mass fell 31%.
- Fast group (1.4%/week): lean mass unchanged. Fat mass fell 21%.
Both groups lost fat. The slower group lost more of it, and gained
muscle on the way. Losing at double the rate did not get them there twice as
fast; it just cost them the muscle. Another comparison found that dieting at
1 kg a week rather than 0.5 over four weeks came with about 5% off
bench press strength and 30% more reduction in testosterone.
Where muscle loss actually starts
There is a usefully specific number here. A meta-analysis of resistance
training in an energy deficit found that deficit size predicted lean mass
change, and that a deficit of about 500 kcal a day was the
break-even point. Below it, lifters on average gained a little lean
mass while losing fat. Above it, they lost lean mass, and the losses grew
with the deficit.
Two honest caveats on that figure. The analysis could not account for how
much protein the subjects were eating, because too few studies reported it,
and most participants were older and untrained. The real threshold is
probably higher for someone eating 2.5 g/kg of protein and lifting hard, but 500 is the best anchor available, and it is far lower than the
deficits most people run.
The three things that protect muscle, in order
1. Lift, and lift progressively
Without resistance training, roughly 20 to 30% of everything you
lose is lean tissue. With progressive lifting and adequate protein,
that can approach zero. Nothing else on this page comes close to that
effect size. If you are cutting without lifting, you are not losing fat, you are losing weight, and some of it is the part you wanted to keep.
2. Protein, scaled to how lean you are
The recommendation is 2.3 to 3.1 g per kilogram of lean body
mass, note lean mass, not total weight, which is why two people at
the same weight need different amounts. The guidance is explicit that the
leaner you are and the bigger your deficit, the further up that range you
should sit. Protein is the last thing to compromise when calories get tight.
3. Sleep, which nobody puts in a calculator
Two groups ate the same restricted diet for two weeks. One slept 5.5 hours a
night, the other 8.5. Total weight loss was identical. But the short-sleep
group lost 55% less fat and 60% more lean tissue, the same
deficit, the same weight, redistributed against them. Another study found an
even sharper split.
If you are on five hours a night, fixing that will do more for your body
composition than any change to your macros.
Why your projection is optimistic
Every calculator that multiplies your deficit out over sixteen weeks,
including this one, produces a number that is slightly too good. Two reasons.
First, the familiar 7,700 kcal per kilogram figure is a simplification.
The real energy density of the weight you lose depends on how much fat you
started with, it holds up reasonably for people carrying a lot of fat and
overstates the required deficit for leaner people.
Second, and more importantly, your energy expenditure falls as you
lose weight, by more than the weight loss alone accounts for. That
reduction persists, and it is accompanied by falls in leptin, thyroid
hormones and testosterone, and rises in ghrelin and cortisol. Which is why
the guidance from the researchers who study it is to use the smallest
deficit that still produces visible progress.
We show a realistic band alongside the straight-line number rather than
inventing a correction factor, because no reliable single coefficient for
this exists. Recalculate every four weeks from your own trend and you will
be more accurate than any formula.
How low is too low
The familiar 1,200-calorie (women) and 1,500-calorie (men) floors are rules
of thumb, not physiology, they trace back to a clinical weight-loss
prescription range that explicitly said to adjust for bodyweight and
activity. A better-grounded floor is 30 kcal per kilogram of
lean mass, below which hormonal and menstrual disruption become
likely.
For a lot of people that second floor is considerably higher than the first.
An 85 kg man carrying 70 kg of lean mass has a floor above
2,100 kcal, so the widely repeated advice to eat 1,500 would be a
serious mistake for him. The calculator uses whichever of the two floors is
higher and tells you when it has raised your target to meet it.
Methodology and sources
There is no reviewer name at the top of this page because there is no
reviewer. What there is instead: every constant, its source, and a note
wherever we are extrapolating rather than citing.
One limitation to be blunt about. Restricting calories is the intervention
here with the most potential to go wrong, and a web page cannot tell whether
it is a sensible idea for you specifically. Under 18, pregnant or
breastfeeding, on a GLP-1 or any medication that affects weight, managing a
medical condition, or with a complicated relationship to eating, that
is a conversation with a clinician, not a calculator.